The automotive services and technology provider predicts Q1 new-vehicle sales of $15.8 million, despite uncertainty in the Middle East. Sales for March, however, were down 12% year over year because of a pre-tariff buying spike in March 2025 that had boosted sales to 17.9 million. The report said headwinds for the new-vehicle market include affordability and uncertainty in the broader economy.

Cox forecasts new-vehicle unit sales at 1.37 million, down 14.2% year over year, but up 14.3% from February. “March is traditionally a strong month for new-vehicle sales and often shows a volume increase from February,” the report said.

January and February are similarly down year over year, but up month over month.

Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive, said in the report, “Sales are no longer swinging wildly month to month, but growth is also harder to come by. Affordability remains the central challenge for the industry, and that is limiting the market’s ability to expand beyond the mid-15-million range.”

Cox sees new-vehicle sales for 2026 down 2.6% year over year. Their forecast assumes geopolitical instability and volatility in the oil market easing, though continued disruption could further depress vehicle demand, the report said.

The forecast calls for Q1 sales of smaller vehicles, and larger trucks and sport utility vehicles to decline year over year, though midsize vehicle sales will increase, “driven by new product launches and, in some cases, buyers stepping down from higher price points.”

Electric vehicle sales are down in Q1 from the same period last year. This is because of a rise in buying last year ahead of incentive changes, and then the subsequent loss of federal tax incentives, according to the report. Cox sees electric-vehicle sales down 28% year over year. Hybrid vehicles, however, will continue to show “solid growth,” largely because of Toyota and Honda sales.

Cox Automotive, with its headquarters in Atlanta, runs automotive brands Autotrader, Kelley Blue Book and wholesale vehicle marketplace Manheim, which has a location in Darlington.